Rethinking Small Business Failure

Rethinking Small Business Failure

Over several decades working in, on, and around small business and entrepreneurship, I’ve heard a lot of small business failure statistics thrown around.  I should really put “small business failure” in quotes, because in my observation, the statistics thrown around mix apples and oranges, which only causes greater confusion.  Let me explain.

First, how is failure defined?  In most of the studies and statistics floating around, failure is defined as closure.  The study looks at a “cohort” of companies starting in, let’s say 2005, then for several years thereafter, checks to see how many are still open.  So, you hear statistics like, “80 percent of all small businesses fail within ten years,” or “50 percent of all small businesses fail within five years”.

Second, what types of small businesses are we talking about?  As I’ve discussed elsewhere, there’s a wide range of types of businesses you can start and run, from lifestyle businesses, to franchises, to venture-backed growth businesses.  This range of businesses can go from the relatively simple, one-person professional service provider, to the very complex biotech startup teaming with scientists and other advanced degree types.

Let’s tackle the issue of how failure is defined.  How do you define success or failure in your own businesses?  Is it simply based on whether you stay open a certain period of time?  I hope not!  Most entrepreneurs start their businesses with at least some idea of the financial results they’d like to see.  Even if they don’t have clear written goals, as many don’t, they don’t simply say to themselves, “I hope I can keep this thing open for five years”!

Taking it a step further, let’s look at definitions of small business failure in the context of the different types of businesses mentioned above.  Is failure (or success) in a lifestyle business the same as it is in a venture-backed business?  Of course not!  How about in a franchise?  Many franchises will tell you that your probability of “success” is much higher because they’ve worked out all the systems for you.  By mixing lifestyle businesses, with franchises, with investor-backed growth ventures, with other types of ventures, the statistics providers are mixing apples, oranges, and a bunch of other kinds of fruit.  It’s like a mixed fruit cocktail, with ingredients so varied, you don’t even know what kind of “juice” you’re drinking.

Small business failure statistics going forward must be segmented by business type, and if they are going to be calculated on the same basis as before, they should be called “closure statistics” instead.  It would also be great to see success and failure measured along other dimensions, rather than just the binary “still open” or “closed”.  Looking at a dimension such as profitability, even if it had to be averaged, for confidentiality purposes, could be quite interesting.  Magazines such as Inc. look at sales growth over a certain period of time, and while this is certainly interesting and a better metric than open/closed, it’s well known that sales growth doesn’t necessarily correlate perfectly with profitability or sustainability.

In my opinion, based on experience and observation, most of the startups and existing small businesses that fail, never should have been started in the first place.  With a minimal amount of upfront analysis, the entrepreneurs who started the businesses could have determined that their startup had a low probability of “success”.  Such basic steps as a break-even analysis can provide a reality check on what has to take place from a sales volume perspective in order for the business even to reach profitability.  These simple steps often are not taken.  I say this not to discourage entrepreneurs, as I am probably one of your biggest advocates.  Rather, I say it so that you will take the simple steps necessary to increase the odds that the business you are starting will not become a “failure” statistic, not by the open/closed failure definition, but by your own definition.  Make sure you know what that definition is, before you ever open the doors of your small business.

A few of the many questions you should ask yourself before you start your business, to make sure you don’t become another “failure” statistic:

  • What will success be for me in this business (i.e. what are my objectives)?
  • Is there truly demand for what I’m offering, or am I just selling what I understand and want to sell?
  • What is the break-even point, based on my fixed costs, variable costs and selling price?
  • What can I do from a cost perspective to improve my break-even point?
  • Will customers pay the selling price I am estimating for my products and services?
  • How long do I think it will take me to reach break-even?
  • Can I sustain myself and the business until the business starts generating, instead of consuming, cash?
  • Are my estimates of marketing and selling costs realistic in the context of the sales volume I am expecting to generate?
  • What will differentiate my company and offerings in the marketplace, so that I will not become commoditized and have to compete on price?
  • Is the potential upside of this business worth the risk I’m taking?
  • Am I passionate enough about this business to persevere through the tough times and inevitable challenges that will arise?

I look forward to your thoughts and questions.  Please leave a comment (“response”) below or in the upper right corner of this post.

Paul Morin

paul@companyfounder.com

www.companyfounder.com

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Struggling small business? Don't give up!

Struggling In Your Small Business? Don’t Give Up!

If you are struggling in your small business, take heart; you are not alone and you should not give up.  The potential reasons for your struggles, some of which we’ll discuss below, most likely have both a “macro” and “micro” foundation.  As long as you’re willing to be honest with yourself, there’s a good chance you can course-adjust and get your business back on track.  If not, you should at least be able to make a rational decision of “where to go from here”.

The first step in determining what you should do if your business is struggling is to assess whether you have a “good business” to begin with!  Whether you’re running a business that’s been around for seventy-five years or one that’s been around for a month, it’s important to take an honest look at what you have.  It’s sad to say, but some businesses shouldn’t have been started in the first place, and some businesses that were great at the beginning, have been passed by due to “human progress” (“buggy whips” come to mind) or poor management, or both.

Let’s focus on the case of a relatively mature small business that has run into hard times.  If instead you are looking more for a discussion of the characteristics you’ll want to consider in screening a startup, see Startup Basics – The Difference Between Ideas and Opportunities.

First, I want to make the point that I’m a huge fan of the entrepreneur (and any kind of achiever) who has the “never-say-die” mentality.  I applaud it.  I try to emulate it as much as possible.  I believe it is what leads to more progress in our world than almost any other single trait.  All that said, it’s important to be “realistic” too.  I am not saying to lose your never-say-die attitude.  Rather, I am saying assess the situation rationally, do what needs to be done, then channel your enormous willpower and energy in a direction that’s not tantamount to “rearranging deck chairs on the titanic”.

What are the questions you should ask yourself to determine whether your small business has “hit an iceberg” and become the equivalent of the Titanic?  Here are a few thoughts.  This is not an exhaustive list, but it should get your mind moving in the right direction.

Struggling Small Business Honest Self-Assessment Question #1

Has the industry taken a completely new direction, in which we are not prepared or equipped to go?

Take as an example the corner video rental store a few years ago.  Everyone could see the writing on the wall regarding the stiff competition from pay-per-view cable and Netflix, among other movie sources.  If you had owned a chain of video rental stores at that point, what would you have done?

Struggling Small Business Honest Self-Assessment Question #2

Have our margins been squeezed to the point that it’s impossible to make money on the bottom line?

In many industries, there is a tendency toward “commoditization,” which has very negative effects on gross margins, due to severe competition on price, without a commensurate reduction in costs of production.  A good example here would be most segments of the computer hardware manufacturing business.  The prices have come down far faster than the costs of production.  It’s now to the point where you need to be a very large player, doing a huge amount of volume, to have any hopes of making money in that business.  This is where commoditized industries end up.

Struggling Small Business Honest Self-Assessment Question #3

Do we have the right leadership team in place to grow our business?

I have seen this issue in non-family and family businesses alike, but it seems to be more prevalent in family owned companies.  What happens quite frequently is that someone has been with the company a long time, so they’re awarded a senior position, without any real assessment of whether they are the person who will be able to handle those responsibilities as the company grows.  It happens in sales, in marketing, in finance, in operations, even at the CEO and Board level.  The business simply outgrows some people.  It’s inevitable and it’s a difficult situation, but it must be dealt with, or the entire business is put in danger.  It is better to deal with the uncomfortable situation of having to demote or fire someone who cannot “make it happen” than it is to ignore the problem and bring the whole company down in the process.  I understand and fully agree with rewarding loyalty, but not to the detriment of the company, all its other employees, its shareholders, and other constituencies.  If your company and/or industry has outgrown you or other key members of your senior management team, acknowledge it and fix it as soon as possible.

Struggling Small Business Honest Self-Assessment Question #4

Should we be looking at a different part of the “value chain”?

Quite a few years back, I read a book by a couple of BCG (Boston Consulting Group) guys called Blown To Bits.  I don’t recall the exact terminology they used, but one important concept from the book has stuck with me.  They talked about how mature players will have to constantly defend attacks from insurgents who want to come in and “cherry pick” the most profitable pieces of the value chain.  Where are you in the “value chain” that brings value to your customers and solves their problem(s)?  Industries that have many layers of intermediaries en route from production to putting the products in the hands of consumers, these days are frequently seeing entire layers cut out of the chain.  This happens due to the ability of the manufacturer to go directly to the consumer.  Don’t become “disintermediated” (a term used in Blown to Bits, if I recall correctly)!  If you are in one of the layers that is not adding much value, you are in great danger of being cut out.  An example here would be auto insurance.  Geico simply cuts the broker out of the picture.  For other types of insurance, particularly complex business insurance, that’s not quite as easy to do.  Take a close look at your own situation.  Examine the “value chain” all the way from production to the consumer’s hands.  Where is the value being added?  Where is the money being made?  Where are you?

Struggling Small Business Honest Self-Assessment Question #5

If you conclude the future isn’t bright, you’ll need to answer the question: What should we do then?

If you ask yourself some of these questions and don’t like the answers you’re hearing, you will need to decide what to do.  There are typically several choices, including:  close the business, downsize the business, sell the business, change the market focus, upgrade the manufacturing capabilities, upgrade the senior management, etc.  In other words, there are a lot of possibilities and many of them are not mutually exclusive.  For example, upgrading the senior management and changing the market focus or overall strategic direction, would often be logical complements.  The key is that you must do something.  The worst thing you can do is nothing and just continue along a path that you know does not end well.  The other key is to be honest in your assessment.  If your business is struggling, there are reasons for it. It doesn’t just happen.  Most likely some of those reasons are related to macroeconomic issues and others are related to micro issues within the business itself.  In any case, you must take action to address the issues that you have control over.  For the remainder, you will need to do your best to be proactive and navigate around the “storms” in your immediate vicinity and those you see on the horizon.

I look forward to your thoughts and questions.  Please leave a comment (“response”) below or in the upper right corner of this post.

Paul Morin

paul@companyfounder.com

www.companyfounder.com

 

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3 Common Small Business Killers

Small businesses, even those that appear promising at the start, have an unnerving failure rate.  Here I’ll discuss three common small business killers, and what to do about them.  In my extensive time in entrepreneurship, I’ve experienced and seen them all, in my own businesses and those of my clients.  The good news is that if you are aware of these issues and keep vigilant watch, you can spot them early and often prevent them from killing your business.

Common Small Business Killer #1:  Insufficient Funding

I guess this one should come as no surprise.  Most businesses are started on a “shoestring budget” and tend to stay that way through most of their lives.  While this may be unavoidable for some who are starting a business, for others, it is simply an issue of not understanding the likely capital requirements of the business and planning accordingly.

Solution:  Perform a break-even analysis before you start your business, so you can get a basic understanding of the sales volume you will need to break even.  This will, of course, involve making many assumptions and it will never be perfect, however it will at least give you a target and a basis for understanding where you need to take the business.  It will also help guide you as you put together your pro-forma financials, including a cash flow projection, which will help you understand when the business is expected to start generating, rather than burning cash.  Realize that if you make your projections too “rosy,” you are likely to miss them and run into cash flow problems.  Project conservatively and leave yourself a buffer for projection error.  Finally, make sure you understand the potential sources of capital available and stay ahead of your capital requirements, so you’re not in a compromised position, trying to raise cash in an emergency.

Common Small Business Killer #2:  Weak Profit Margins

Some businesses have inherently weak profit margins, due to a variety of factors, but usually because of intense competition and the pricing power of key suppliers.  If you know from the get-go that you are entering a business with weak margins and little hope of improvement in that area, you’re either crazy, don’t realize this issue, or have some other ulterior motive.

Solution:  Before you enter any business, make sure you have a very good understanding of the profit margins of the business.  In particular, you should look for gross margins of sixty percent or better.  I will agree with you that such businesses are not easy to find, but as one of my first mentors told me, when you have gross margins of sixty percent or better, you can make a lot of mistakes in the remainder of your business and still survive to fight another day.  Make sure that as you are putting together the pro-forma financials for your venture, you are very realistic regarding the direct costs you will have in producing your products and/or delivering your services.  Any unrealistic assumptions regarding these costs will give you an inaccurate picture of the likely gross margins you will enjoy in your business and make your pro-forma financial projections misleading and dangerous.  Likewise, be very realistic about how you will be able to price your offering, as this will be the other determinant of the gross margins you will be looking at.  Finally, be realistic about how these direct costs and pricing power are likely to change over time, given the competitive forces and other market trends you see at work in your industry.

Common Small Business Killer #3:  Unskilled Management

The unskilled (or under-skilled) management issue occurs quite a bit.  Two scenarios where this issue is particularly common are: 1.) a person comes out of a larger corporate environment with a very specific skillset and decides to become an entrepreneur; and 2.) a family business employs its family members in key management and leadership positions, regardless of the fact that they don’t have the experience or the skills to do the job well.  There are many other situations where entrepreneurs do not have the proper skills to run the business they have chosen, but these are two of the most common.

Solution:  When you are starting a business, or even if you already have it up and running, take a close look at the types of skills that will be necessary to run and grow the business effectively.  If you are not sure what it takes to be great at your endeavor, take a look around at those who are already succeeding in the same or similar businesses.  Take a close look at the core skills and knowledge they employ to allow them to do well in that business.  In some businesses, the most important competency is financial acumen, in others it’s operational knowledge, in most all, it’s marketing and sales capabilities.  Make an honest assessment.  Where you see gaps in your knowledge and capabilities, partner with or hire others to fill those gaps.  Remember when you’re doing this assessment that, regardless of how talented you may be, it will be very hard for you to have the time, energy and capabilities to do all tasks well.  Be sure you have the most critical ones covered and seek assistance everywhere else.

It’s important to understand that these are just three of many potential “small business killers,” but start with making sure you have these three under control and we’ll cover some others in the future.

I look forward to your thoughts, comments and questions.  Leave a comment below!

Paul Morin

paul@companyfounder.com

www.companyfounder.com

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There Is No Instant Success

Deliberate Practice Is The Only Way To Become Great

Occasionally, we hear of a competitor, an athlete, or a person in a particular field of endeavor who “came out of nowhere” and appeared on the scene as a major contender. This “instant success” is hardly ever the case. Upon further investigation, almost invariably, this person has had years of preparation and training, and not just random practice here and there. In order to reach expert level in most anything, according to prominent researchers on the subject (for example, see many of the works of K. A. Ericsson), it takes around 10,000 hours (or 10 years) of deliberate practice. This is a form of practice where you don’t just go out and hit a bucket of balls (for example) each day; rather, you hit that bucket of balls (or 20 of them) with a particular iron, with a particular objective in mind, bearing in mind and noting any issues you had. You then focus in on improving your swing and your approach in your areas of weakness. This is a “continuous feedback” loop that will keep you improving. You don’t just go out and “hit your favorite iron” over and over again and hope for improvement.

I am lucky to have an advisory and coaching practice that spans strategic planning, startup and entrepreneurial development, and peak performance coaching. It is a truly fascinating area, as it deals with human potential and performance, individually and in teams and larger organizations. In my experience and observation, the “10,000 hour rule” really does hold true. While it may not be a hard and fast rule at 10,000 hours, it’s a good approximation of the time anyone will need to invest if they want to reach “master” or “expert” level in their chosen endeavor. Most remarkably, this benchmark is not widely known or talked about, and further, even among those that are aware of it, they don’t often stop to consider the implications. The main implication, from my perspective, is that most people will never reach the expert level at anything. Why? Because even if they do end up doing something consistently for ten years, and most will not, they will not have done it in a “deliberate” way. Rather than have 10,000 hours of deliberate practice, they will have had 10,000 one-hour, relatively random, relatively unconnected experiences.

This reality holds true regardless of the field of endeavor we look at. If you are a golfer, or you understand golf to some extent, think for a moment about how the vast majority of people shoot almost the same score (let’s say within 5 strokes), for 30 years or more! How is this possible? Is it because they are simply incapable of doing better? In most cases, OF COURSE NOT! It happens this way because most of them are not practicing “deliberately”. The easiest way to do so would be to work with a coach who understands the concept of deliberate practice. But it’s also very possible, though perhaps a bit more difficult, to practice deliberately on your own. Do most people do so? No they do not. Instead, they essentially go out and play the same round of golf over and over again. Now that may be OK, depending what their objectives are. For example, if their score really doesn’t matter much to them and they just want to be out there to get some exercise and enjoy themselves, so be it. That is a perfectly valid pursuit. If, however, they are truly trying to become “masters” or “experts” with this approach, they are deceiving themselves. It will never happen.

So does this reality only apply to sports? Not at all. It applies to any endeavor, physical or mental, at which you are trying to become an expert. Think about it in terms of your small business or your job. Do you “practice deliberately”? Do you analyze your weaknesses and constantly strive to improve in these areas, day in and day out? Or do you just stick to the things you like to do and feel comfortable with and metaphorically, like the golfer above, continue to play the same round and shoot the same score, day after day, quarter after quarter, year in and year out? Take a close look. Be honest with yourself. Ask yourself if you are willing to do what it takes to become a “master” or “expert” in your sport, business, field, or other area of endeavor. If not, consider doing something else, as dabbling will not get you anywhere you are likely to want to go.

I look forward to your thoughts, comments and questions.

Paul Morin
paul@companyfounder.com
www.companyfounder.com

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